Recession ≠ Correction ≠ Crash

In the last 10 years, house builders have been active.

Housing starts (2010-21)

But, housing source doesn’t have a cartel like oil suppliers have OPEC.

So, most builders & quite a few city councils obtained overzealous & overbuilt stock.

As a outcome, months of offer from new construction is >400% that of resale models!

Months of Supply: New vs. Existing Homes (2010-22)

So now, builders are halting new tasks even though striving to offer off recent initiatives.

Housing Market Index (2010-22)

At the time builders start out trimming jobs en masse, development will see a housing-relevant recession.

And because development careers are a material section of all round jobs, we could a national headline economic downturn as very well.

Home Price Growth: 2022 & 2023 Forecast

Home Prices: 1920-2022 & 2022-25 Forecast

Overall Inventory (1982-2022)

Inventory: New & Existing Homes (1982-2022)

Source from resales will keep reducing mainly because 90% of home finance loan holders have a <5% mortgage. Most will become a landlord instead of selling their home.

Homeownership Rate (1940-2022)

Mortgage Credit Availability Index (2004-22)

Median Days on Market (2015-22)

And…

Homes Sold (YTD 2008-22)

Markets facing a possible 5% price correction by 2023

Why? Some cities have massively overbuilt housing inventory.

Permits Issued Per 1000 Units (2022)

You can read more here.

3 interventions from the federal government:

  1. Pare or reduce benchmark rates
  2. Resume QE of RMBS
  3. Resume mortgage forbearance

This will protect housing equity by sacrificing debt.

And, then, we’ll see another spike in home prices.

Our belief? Never bet against America.

Never Bet Against America

Note: All statements above are subject to revisions based on changing assumptions and market conditions. Figures could be rounded by +-10% for improving readability. We are neither a tax advisor nor a financial advisor and none of our statements should be interpreted as tax advice or financial advice.

Jerrie Parise

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